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College Pick 'em is a pick-the-winner game with a twist: players must rank their picks in order of confidence. It's not as easy as it looks, so I'll weigh in every Thursday to help you make those tough decisions. Be sure to log in to the College Pick 'em page on Mondays for the upcoming week's matchups and previews, and don't forget to check the message boards for plenty of chatter about all the week's action.

First, a shout-out to J. Stewart, who leads the College Pick 'em contest with an impressive total of 163 points out of a possible 165. Second, for those who didn't catch it last week, I have begun posting updates to my confidence rankings on the message boards. My column appears each Thursday, but as a constant observer of college teams' practice and preparation, my handicapping runs deep into Friday, after all of the workouts, injury reports and coaches' news conferences are finally in the books. Look for my updated late-week thoughts on the message board prior to making your final selections at lock time on Saturday morning.

Alabama has Georgia on deck, but it's unlikely that the Tide will be looking past an Arkansas team that was a major thorn in their side throughout Houston Nutt's tenure in Fayetteville. These two teams have played to double-overtime twice in the past five years, and last year Alabama won on a late fourth-quarter drive after blowing a 21-0 lead. Arkansas is in complete rebuilding mode under first-year coach Bobby Petrino, but the Hogs enter at 2-0 after narrow escapes from both Western Illinois and ULM. Alabama landed what many services rate as the No. 1 recruiting class in the nation, and Nick Saban hasn't hesitated to put much of his new young talent on the field this year. The Tide have one of the nation's top offensive lines, and boast tremendous balance on that side of the ball. Petrino is transforming the Razorbacks' attack into a pass-first offense, but must do so without the top four receivers from 2007, three of whom were running backs anyway. Senior quarterback Casey Dick has shown improvement after throwing for just 1,695 yards last year, but a Razorbacks line recruited for run blocking is still learning Petrino's NFL-style pass protection schemes. Alabama nose tackle Terrence Cody is an unblockable, disruptive force, and the rest of the defense is solid enough to contain an Arkansas attack that's still finding itself. The Razorbacks' defense, meanwhile, is also still in transition after losing five of its top six tacklers to graduation, plus its outstanding cornerback duo. Arkansas did receive an unexpected extra week of preparation when the Texas game was postponed due to weather concerns, but it won't be enough against a Bama squad that has better overall talent and enough senior leadership to keep the young stars focused on their assignments on the road.
Alabama 28-17

Sixteen returning starters and the continued development of uberrecruit Jimmy Clausen and his offensive line were enough for many pundits to predict a return to the top 25 for Notre Dame this year. After two games, the Irish are 2-0, but it's apparent that this team has a lot of work to do. Clausen has shown flashes of both poise and ability, and he has two developing stars at receiver in Golden Tate and Michael Floyd. Still, the line is not playing that well and the defense appears slow. The Irish are clearly not top-25 material yet and the win over rebuilding Michigan may look less impressive each time the Wolverines take the field this year. Michigan State is definitely pointed in the right direction under second-year boss Mark Dantonio. The Spartans lost some serious talent on defense, but the unit has made steady progress thus far. The passing offense appears capable under the management of steady senior triggerman Brian Hoyer, and new receiving threats have emerged to replace 2007 standout Devin Thomas. The Spartans' bread and butter, though, is a productive ground game led by senior running back Javon Ringer, who went off for 282 rushing yards last week in a rain-soaked win over FAU. Notre Dame caused seven Wolverines fumbles last week, but otherwise struggled to slow Michigan freshman Sam McGuffie, who racked up 178 yards rushing and receiving. The home team has lost seven straight in a series that's seen its share of thrills, but the visiting Irish don't appear to have the horses to make it eight in a row. The Spartans are the more veteran team with the more reliable weapons, and possibly sport the better defense as well. Plus, Dantonio hasn't suffered the distraction of a "blown out" knee all week, unlike damaged Head Domer Charlie Weis.
Michigan State 27-17

The Deacons shocked Florida State 30-0 the last time these teams met in Tallahassee, then followed up with a wild three-point win at home last season. Wake is coming off a bye week; prior to that the Deacons notched a road win at Baylor, then passed a stern test at home against a quality Ole Miss team. Quarterback Riley Skinner is one of the ACC's best, but there are holes to fill at receiver and along the offensive line. Fortunately for Wake, eight starters return from a tough, opportunistic defense. The Seminoles, for their part, return plenty of talent from last year's underachieving squad. This week the team welcomes back a handful of players from suspension, including crucial playmakers like wide receiver Preston Parker and defensive tackle Budd Thacker. The key to the Seminoles' improvement this year, though, might lie more with the coaching staff than with the team's 15 returning starters. Last year's high-profile hires (offensive coordinator Jimbo Fisher, offensive line coach Rick Trickett and defensive assistant Chuck Amato) have now had a year together, and reports from Tallahassee indicate that the chemistry among the coaching staff is far better than it was last season. With two wins over FCS opponents, Florida State hasn't been tested yet this year, but this is the game that the team has been thinking about all summer. The Noles don't need any more motivation after 2006's humiliation and 2007's crazy finish, but the team did get a little added bulletin board material after a Wake player was spotted wearing an FSU "Unconquered" T-shirt that had been altered with magic marker to simply "Conquered." With or without that sort of motivational lagniappe, this is a statement game for the Florida State program. Wake is one of the best-coached teams in the nation, and few coaches use a bye week as productively as Jim Grobe. Still, the Seminoles have more playmakers and the ability to put pressure on Skinner, which is a must against a passer who completes nearly 75 percent of his throws. The Noles also have mystery on their side; only half the playbook was deployed in the first two games, and the team has been working on some trick plays specifically designed to counter Wake's aggressive defense. Wake Forest has become a formidable opponent for any team at any time, but FSU has invested too much in this game to lose.
Florida State 24-10

George O'Leary's Knights have rested for a week after a hard-fought overtime loss to rival USF, but while an extra week of practice may help, this is still a team that hasn't shown much punch so far this year. A 17-0 win over South Carolina State raised more questions about the Kevin Smith-less offense than it answered, and the following week's scuffle with USF was far more lopsided than the score indicates. The Bulls outgained UCF 504-226; only special teams and timely turnovers got the Knights in the end zone at all. Sheer mojo kept UCF in this emotional game, but it really wasn't that close. Boston College has had a week off of its own, and the Eagles aren't in South Florida's class this year. Still, the host would appear to have the superior personnel, especially in the trenches. A fine UCF defensive back seven will limit big plays by an Eagles offense that's trying to find its way under new quarterback Chris Crane, but the Boston College rush defense should shut down a UCF attack that hasn't shown it can make big plays of its own in the passing game. One positive from the USF loss is that new Knights quarterback Michael Greco really seemed to come of age, but a road win over a Boston College team that has a big advantage on the line of scrimmage is too much to ask of the junior signal-caller.
Boston College 24-14

There's no question that Tennessee is well-motivated for this one, especially after accusations by Florida players that the Volunteers quit during last year's 59-20 rout in the Swamp. However, it's hard to see how the host has the horses to pull this one off. Tennessee quarterback Jonathan Crompton hasn't looked ready for prime time in his first two games since replacing the departed Erik Ainge under center. After a season-opening loss to a rebuilding UCLA team and a lackluster first half versus UAB, Tennessee went back to the basics and pounded the ball on the Blazers en route to a big second half. Crompton has yet to prove he can deliver the ball to his talented receiving corps when it counts, and Florida's run defense isn't likely to yield much on the ground. The Gators also have the defensive speed to snuff out yards after the catch on Philip Fulmer's beloved wide receiver screens. Urban Meyer has been masterful when given a bye week, and while this loaded Florida team hasn't looked in midseason form in its first two games, it should be ready to play its best football of the year. Tennessee will likely do the same, but the Vols have a lot farther to go, as they are breaking in more new players and must replace more of last year's leadership on both sides of the ball. Road wins are hard to come by in the SEC, and Tennessee certainly has the defense to keep this one plenty competitive. Coaching and offensive firepower are on the side of the Gators, however. Florida prevails after a tough first half.
Florida 24-17

Iowa leads the nation in scoring defense, having allowed just eight points in three games. The Hawkeyes lost four of 2007's top six tacklers, but return the makings of another very solid stop unit. With capable tailback Shonn Greene, decent receivers and the entire 2007 offensive line two-deep back this year, the Hawkeyes have every ingredient needed to challenge the leaders of the pack in the Big Ten. Every ingredient except one, that is. Much-maligned incumbent quarterback Jake Christensen has already lost the job once this year, only to get it back. Now Iowa isn't sure who will line up under center. The Hawks are a quarterback away from being a top-15 caliber team, but that problem isn't going to get solved overnight. Whether it's the junior Christensen or sophomore Ricky Stanzi getting the starting nod will be a late-week decision, though Iowa will run the same package of plays regardless of who is under center. Iowa is committed to its offensive philosophy, and Greene will carry the load until the Hawkeyes are forced to throw. The defense has played well enough to win the first three games even without much offensive production, but after beating up on Maine, FIU and Iowa State, the Hawkeyes draw a stiffer challenge this week. As vanilla as the Pitt offense is, it will be the first real test for the Iowa defense. Pittsburgh is also a run-first, blue-collar team, but the Panthers have some serious weapons at wideout to complement star ball carrier LeSean McCoy. Preseason expectations in Pittsburgh were the highest in the four-year Dave Wannstedt era, and the Panthers were even ranked in the top 25 to start the year. However, Pitt's balloon was burst with a season-opening 10-point loss to Bowling Green, and a 27-16 win over Buffalo hasn't restored the shine to what was supposed to be Wannstedt's breakthrough season. After a bye week to lick their wounds, the Panthers now play the biggest game in Wannstedt's tenure. A win will restore optimism that this season can still be a special one. A loss means that discontent among the fans will peak and confidence among the players will plummet, as the Pitt family again resigns itself to a five- or six-win season. Pitt was beaten physically in losses to Michigan State the past two years. The Panthers have won just one of their past six nonconference games versus BCS competition. This is the team's only real chance to atone for the gaffe against Bowling Green with a real nonconference victory. In short, it's a statement game for Pitt in a way that it is not for Iowa. The Hawkeyes will come to play, but the Panthers have a lot more at stake here.
Pittsburgh 24-17

Last year, Texas A&M went to Miami with the entire Dennis Franchione era on the line in a make-or-break game for the season and the program. The Aggies not only lost, they were routed, falling behind 31-0 en route to a 34-17 loss that was nowhere near as competitive as the final margin. This season, A&M is clearly rebuilding under first-year coach Mike Sherman. A season-opening loss to Arkansas State and a total of just 539 yards of offense in two games have sent a message to fans and players alike that the process will not be a short one. The Aggies are the revenger here, but the sense of urgency found in programs farther along their path is lacking. Texas A&M has a lot of work to do to be a factor in the Big 12, and the coaches are still feeling their way around the team and its personnel. Given the degree to which Franchione set back the Aggies' program, Sherman will get a pass in his first year regardless of what happens, and the staff is more focused on teaching, improving, installing schemes and finding the right combination of personnel than it is on making a statement in any one particular game. An injury to quarterback Stephen McGee -- one of Franchione's most ardent supporters during his divisive final season -- has created a quarterback controversy, as backup Jerrod Johnson played well after coming into the New Mexico game in relief. McGee's status for the Miami game is still undetermined, but many feel that the strong-armed Johnson is a better fit for the new offense than the mobile senior. Sherman, in fact, has not committed to starting McGee even if healthy. This A&M edition has an identity crisis, and it doesn't look to be resolved quickly. Miami has a marquee injury of its own, as the Canes may be without the services of top running back Javarris James. The Hurricanes, however, are poised to take a step forward in Randy Shannon's second season at the helm, as the defense has made great strides and the offense has committed to redshirt freshman Robert Marve under center. Miami has drawn strength from its road loss to an outstanding Florida team that simply had the Canes outmanned. That experience will be instrumental in the team's continued development, and will play a big role in the Canes' passing their second road test at College Station. Miami has enough playmakers to dent the end zone a few times, which is all that should be required against an Aggies offense that hasn't found any rhythm.
Miami 24-10

Arizona State was shocked by UNLV last week, but this team has great senior leadership and gets an immediate opportunity at full redemption. The Sun Devils lost to LSU 35-31 on some last-minute heroics back in 2005, and this matchup shapes up very much the same. Home field looms large in this kind of game, and Georgia coach Mark Richt is concerned not only about the travel but also about how his players will hold up in the desert heat after practicing in unseasonably cool temperatures all week. The Georgia pass rush will be the key to this game, as Sun Devils triggerman Rudy Carpenter can beat anyone with enough time, but his line has had some protection issues. The Devils are outclassed in terms of defensive personnel, but nearly all of the intangibles work against Georgia. The Bulldogs are coming off a defensive war with a physical South Carolina team, and have insurgent rival Alabama on deck. They must travel across the country to face an angry team looking for redemption in arguably the school's biggest game this decade. This should be a classic struggle between a legitimate national title contender from the nation's top conference and a slightly outmanned Pac-10 host that will be in top form.
Arizona State 35-34

LSU is once again dripping with talent, but after wins over Appalachian State and North Texas to begin the 2008 season the Tigers are still somewhat of an unknown quantity. The running game has a chance to be one of the nation's best despite the loss of top 2007 rusher Jacob Hester. Quarterback is the team's biggest question mark, where Harvard transfer Andrew Hatch is sharing time with redshirt freshman Jarrett Lee. The jury is also still out on a defense that must replace three All-Americans. LSU may be the fresher team here, but Auburn is more battle-tested after struggling to a 3-2 win over Mississippi State. However, there are credible rumors that all is not well inside the Auburn program. New coordinator Tony Franklin's offense has been unproductive, leading to fan unrest, a quarterback controversy and a possible chasm within the coaching staff. This is a circle-the-wagons type game for Auburn, which desperately needs a big win to silence the naysayers. The early conference tilt is just as critical for LSU, as even SEC teams appear to be on the outside looking in when it comes to a national title chase that's currently spearheaded by undefeated USC and Oklahoma teams. The home team has won eight straight in this series, and Auburn has captured the past two at home by 10-9 and 7-3 scores. This game shapes up as another defensive slugfest, with LSU breaking in a new quarterback on the road and Auburn's offense struggling to put points on the board against lesser defenses than the one that comes to Jordan-Hare Saturday. Like so many installments in this series, this one should be a hard-fought physical war that comes down to the final possession.
Auburn 17-14

North Carolina was impressive in a televised bludgeoning of Rutgers in New Jersey, and the Heels are clearly a player in the weak ACC Coastal division. Virginia Tech is, however, for all its struggles still the favorite by default, and the Hokies don't lose many games against young teams. Tech has been abysmal offensively, and the supporting cast of skill players is so inexperienced that coach Frank Beamer has elected to go with mobile sophomore Tyrod Taylor at quarterback, rather than senior Sean Glennon. Taylor is a runner who can make plays with his legs, whereas Glennon is at his best a steady game manager who distributes the ball to the team's playmakers. The problem is that the offense doesn't have any playmakers, at least none who have really emerged yet. Therefore Beamer, though he may not like it, feels forced to operate the offense around Taylor and his rushing ability until consistent backs and receivers are found. Tech has almost completely abandoned the passing game in its past two games, and Saturday it will attempt to employ its time-honored formula of winning with defense, field position and special teams. Carolina will respond with a big-play passing game, featuring capable triggerman T.J. Yates and all-purpose threat Brandon Tate. It's the Tar Heels' rush defense, however, that must carry the flag against the Hokies, getting Tech's ball-control offense off the field and giving Yates & Co. enough chances that the Heels won't feel doomed by one or two mistakes. Carolina may not be up to the task, having allowed 152 rushing yards and 22 first downs to McNeese State and then 140 rushing yards and 23 first downs to a struggling Rutgers ground attack. Virginia Tech is unquestionably down a notch this year, and the homestanding Heels have a golden opportunity to show that they're ahead of schedule by seizing control of the Coastal division. Carolina will have a tough time finding the end zone without taking chances, however, and Tech's defense will pounce on its young opponents' errors. This is barometer game for both sides, one an up-and-coming program still in the early stages of rebuilding under a marquee coach, and the other a championship program looking to speed up a one-year rebuilding job with only 10 returning starters.
Virginia Tech 17-14

Will Harris is a college football and fantasy baseball analyst for ESPN.com